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Every year, in the late summer and early fall, hurricanes devastate much of the Caribbean. In 2017 alone, over $294 billion of damages and 3,000 deaths were recorded during the Atlantic hurricane season. The majority of this damage is from so-called major hurricanes. These are hurricanes that are category three or higher, or in other words, a maximum sustained wind speed of at least 111 miles per hour. Forecasting the weather is notoriously difficult. However, we will try to come up with an accurate probability distribution for the number of major hurricanes this year.

First, let’s get a sense of…


On September 26, 2021, Germans will go to the polls to select a new host of representatives in the Bundestag. This election promises to set the stage for a new era in Germany following the announcement that Angela Merkel would retire as chancellor. The direction of the world’s fifth largest economy hinges on the will of the German people. In this report, we seek to forecast which parties will be part of the new government?

First, we need to review the six major parties in Germany.

The Union is a political alliance between two political parties the the Christian Democratic…

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